If January felt quieter than usual, the numbers confirm it — but not in the way most headlines will frame it.

According to the latest release from the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS (LSTAR), 341 homes sold in January, down 10.3% year-over-year.

At first glance, that sounds bearish. But context matters — and January always needs context.

Prices Aren't Collapsing — They're Holding (For Now)

The average sale price in January was $624,550, up more than $10,000 from December and only 0.6% lower than January 2025.

That tells us something important:

This isn't a panic market. It's a slow-absorption market.

Prices are holding because sellers haven't fully capitulated — but activity tells a different story.

The Metric That Actually Matters Right Now

LSTAR reported a sales-to-new-listings ratio of just 32.2% in January, down sharply from 71.6% in December.

By CREA standards, that firmly places London in buyer's-market territory.

Now, LSTAR is quick to note that this aligns with a "typical January." That's fair — seasonality is real. But here's the part that isn't seasonal.

Inventory Is at a 10-Year High

London entered 2026 with 6.6 months of inventory, up from 5.3 months a year ago and the highest level of active listings seen in the last decade.

That's the signal buyers and sellers should be paying attention to.

High inventory changes behaviour:

Buyers take more time
Sellers compete more directly
Pricing mistakes get punished faster

And this isn't uniform across housing types.

Condos Are Still the Weak Spot

LSTAR's Home Price Index shows clear divergence by housing type:

Apartment benchmark price: $322,300, down 5.4% from October and 0.5% month-over-month
Townhouses: short-term bounce (+3.1% from December) but still down 3.5% over three months
Single-family homes: relatively stable, down less than 1% over three months

This lines up with what we're seeing on the ground:

Condos are where pricing resistance is showing up first and most clearly.

That matters if you're downsizing, investing, or selling entry-level product.

London in the National Context

On a national HPI comparison, London–St. Thomas sits at $558,000, well below the Canadian benchmark of $658,300.

That relative affordability is still a strength — but it doesn't insulate us from slower demand or buyer fatigue. We're cheaper than many markets.

We're not immune to market cycles.

Why This Market Feels "Stuck"

January confirms something we've been saying quietly for months:

London isn't overheated — but it's also not clearing.

Buyers have options.
Sellers have expectations anchored to past peaks.
Inventory is high enough to force negotiation — but not yet high enough to force capitulation.

That's the definition of a transitional market.

What This Means for You

Buyers: You have leverage, but only if you use it selectively. The best opportunities are in listings that have been sitting — especially condos and townhouses — where sellers are now competing, not leading.

Sellers: Pricing "just to test the market" is risky in this environment. Inventory is deep, and buyers are informed. Strategic pricing and presentation matter more than ever.

Investors: Cash flow assumptions need to be conservative. Condo values are still adjusting, and patience is part of the strategy right now.

One Final Point That Gets Overlooked

LSTAR notes that January sales alone may have generated over $49 million in spin-off economic activity, from legal fees to renovations and moving costs.

Even in a slower market, real estate activity still matters — it's just shifting gears.

This isn't a crash. It's not a boom. It's a market asking everyone to be more thoughtful.

Helping you read the market as it is — not as it used to be.

London's Market Is Officially in Buyer's Territory — Here's What the January Data Really Says